Financial markets
Playing with fire 玩火的市场

May 18th 2006 From The Economist print edition

Macroeconomic fears have afflicted the world's financial markets
对宏观经济的担忧折磨了整个世界的金融市场

PRUDENTBEAR.COM, a website that attracts the Jeremiahs of financial markets, carried a bleak commentary on the dollar on May 11th, laced with foreboding about American trade data, due the next day. “Can there be any doubt that the nation's record current-account and trade deficits have begun to take a serious and growing toll on the dollar? I think not.”
一个吸引金融市场先知先觉者的网站PRUDENTBEAR.COM，5月11日在预测第二天公布的美国贸易数据时，以冰冷的语气评论美元说：“现在对于美国创纪录的经常账户和贸易赤字将给美元带来日益严重的影响还有什么疑问吗，我认为没有了。”

The writer, an American financial consultant named Douglas Gillespie, went on: “I remind readers that the stock market crash in October 1987 began months earlier as a dollar problem, that then became an interest-rate problem, that then became a stock market problem—a very, very big stock market problem! ”
作者美国投资顾问道格拉斯.吉尔斯帕写到：“我要提醒读者的是，一场类似于1987年10月的股市崩溃已经从几个月前的美元危机开始了，并变成利率问题，最后变成一场股市危机－一场非常非常大的股市危机。”

As it happened, the next day, May 12th, the dollar's broad trade-weighted index plunged to its lowest level since 1997. In the next few days, the dollar was followed downwards by the prices of all sorts of assets, including shares, bonds, gold, industrial metals and oil.
在这之后的第二天，5月12日美元的广义贸易加权指数跌到了自1997年以来的最低水平。之后的几天，各种资产的价格纷纷伴随美元下跌，包括股票、债券、黄金、工业金属和原油。

After a steadier couple of days, more trouble landed on May 17th in the shape of poor inflation data. America's “core” consumer-price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% in April. Bond yields rose a bit, as you might expect, but the stock market took a pasting: down went the S&P 500, by 1.7% (see chart 1). In Europe, where the euro area's core inflation rate (defined slightly differently) also rose, share prices tumbled too. All this has left investors questioning whether the combination of rising inflation and inflationary expectations with worries about a weakening dollar and uncertainty over the global economic outlook is spelling the end of a bull run that has driven many asset prices to, or close to, records.
在形势低迷的几天后，更多的麻烦是来自5月17日公布的通胀数据，这个不包括食品和能源价格的美国核心消费价格指数在4月份上升了0.3％。可以想象的是债券收益略微上升了，但是股市却蒙上了阴影：标准普尔500下降了1.7％。在欧洲，欧元区的核心通胀率（与美国的定义相似）也上升了，股票价格同样回落。这些都使得投资者们怀疑，正在上升的通胀及通胀预期和对弱势美元的担忧，再加上全球经济表现的不确定性，这些是否会共同意味着带动各种资产价格达到或者接近历史新高的牛市的结束。

Worse still, some (and not just bears such as Mr Gillespie) saw what Richard Cookson, of HSBC, a big bank, who is a former Economist journalist, called “echoes of 1987”. So far, as Mr Cookson pointed out, it is hard to argue that financial conditions are anything like as severe as those leading up to that year's stock market crash. But just as it did then, much depends on how policymakers handle the slippery dollar and jumpy inflation. Leading that effort is Ben Bernanke, chairman of America's Federal Reserve, who is as untested in coping with macroeconomic disturbances as Alan Greenspan was when he took over the central bank two months before the stock market crash in October 1987.
更糟糕的是，一些并不像吉尔斯帕先生这样看空的人，如前《经济学家》记者、汇丰银行的理查德.库克松也称这是“1987年的回音”。正如库克松先生指出的，迄今为止还很难说金融环境已经像当年导致股市崩溃那样的严峻，但也正和那时一样，都将更多的取决于政策制订者如何应对弱势的美元和上升的通胀势头。而作出决策的正是美联储的主席本.伯南克先生，这位主席并未像他的前任那样经过宏观经济波动的考验，艾伦.格林斯潘是在1987年10月股市崩溃两个月前开始掌管央行的。

It is on Mr Bernanke's shoulders that investors believe some of the responsibility for the recent bout of market instability lies—though not all of it, by any means. He has yet to establish his credibility with Wall Street: since he took office in February, yields on ten-year bonds, which had been remarkably stable, have climbed by more than half a percentage point. Partly, this has reflected a pick-up in global growth, which tends to push yields up. But recently, it is the component of bond yields that measures inflationary expectations that has increased most sharply. According to Francesco Garzarelli, chief interest-rate strategist at Goldman Sachs, the expected inflation rate implied by the prices of indexed Treasury bonds has risen almost to the same level, around 2.75%, as it was before the Fed began tightening monetary policy in mid- 2004.
伯南克先生肩头的重担是投资者认为他应该为最近市场的某些不稳定性承担部分的责任，当然肯定不是全部的责任。他仍在寻求华尔街对他的信任：在他二月上任之后，一直很稳定的10年期国债收益率向上爬升了超过0.5个百分点。这部分是由于全球增长推动债券收益上升的因素，但最近是衡量通胀预期的债券收益率急遽上升。根据高盛的首席利率分析师弗朗西斯科.加拉雷利的分析，反映通胀预期的国债指数价格几乎已经上升到2004年中期美联储开始收紧货币政策之前2.75％的水平。

It has risen particularly steeply since Mr Bernanke's congressional testimony last month hinted that the Fed might pause after raising rates to 5% (a level they reached, as expected, on May 10th). Since that speech, the decline in the dollar has accelerated. And now Wall Street has this week's inflation data to worry about. “The markets are unambiguously signalling unease about the inflation-fighting credentials of the Federal Reserve,” wrote Tim Bond, of Barclays Capital, even before the latest turbulence.
从上个月开始这一上升特别明显，当时伯南克在国会听证时暗示美联储将在利率升至5％时停止加息（正如所料，利率在5月10日升至5％）。美元从那时起就开始加速贬值，现在华尔街开始担心本周的通胀数据，甚至在最近波动的之前，巴克莱的提姆.邦得就写到：“市场对美联储战胜通胀的可信度发出了模糊的不安信号。”

A survey of fund managers by Merrill Lynch, published on May 16th but conducted a few days before the markets screeched into reverse, bore out the impression of an inflation scare. The balance of those believing the global economy was operating above a sustainable long-term trend, which would be inflationary, turned positive during the past quarter. Meanwhile, almost two-thirds of fund managers expected core inflation to be higher in a year's time, compared with less than half in February.
美林5月16号公布了一项对基金经理的调查，但调查是在市场逆转的前几天进行的，它证实了市场恐惧通胀的印象。基金经理们认为全球经济正运行在持续长期的上升趋势中，而其中的通胀倾向在过去的季度中被证明是有积极意义的。同时几乎2/3的基金经理预计在1年时间中核心通胀指数将进一步上涨，而在2月份只有不到1/2的基金经理这样认为。

How much higher inflationary expectations—and to quell them, interest rates—will go is the question. In the months ahead, any hint of a surge will be likely to send markets into spasms, bringing to an end an unusually long placid period that had encouraged investors to embrace the riskiest of asset classes.
通胀预期及要扑灭他们的利率将有多高还是一个疑问。在几个月前，任何通胀的暗示都将会使市场陷入痉挛，并使不寻常的长期平静走向尽头，这段平静刺激了投资者冒险涌向各个资产市场。

Such unsteadiness, like the swaying of an overcrowded train, caused a minor crush in commodities and emerging markets, two of the most overheated asset classes, early this week. The price of gold, which had risen by almost 70% in a year to 0 an ounce, its highest for many years, fell to 9. On May 15th the price of copper dropped from a record near ,800 a tonne to ,400. Emerging markets, especially hotspots such as Turkey and India, also tumbled.
这些类似于超载列车摇摆的波动，在本周早些时候造成了最过热的资产市场中的两个――商品市场和新兴市场的轻微振荡。黄金价格在过去1年中上涨了近70％，达到了近几年的最高价720美元/盎司，而现在跌到了689美元/盎司。新兴市场中，特别是像土耳其和印度这样的热点地区也遇到了下跌。

All these markets still look unsettled, even though gold recovered as the dollar weakened and the steep falls in other commodity prices have not continued. The price of copper, for instance, has jumped around at levels a few hundred dollars below its peak.
尽管如此，这些市场形势仍不明朗，黄金在美元持续贬值中复苏，其他商品价格也未继续急遽下跌，如铜价已经跃升至距离顶峰几百美元处的价位。

Meanwhile, believers in the bull market in global equities have suffered a nasty graze, though not yet a full goring, from the past week's activity. HSBC notes that company profits are showing no signs of weakening, despite higher raw-material prices: those of firms in the S&P 500 index were up by 14% in the first quarter. Strong earnings mean that shares do not look overvalued. Despite the S&P 500's strength since the start of the year, the price/ earnings ratio is barely higher than it was in 1995 (see chart 2). Optimists would say that shares now look even better value. Although the stock markets' cheerleaders expect American growth to ebb in the second half of the year, they hope that Japan and Europe will take up the slack. There has also been a resurgence of mergers and acquisitions for which companies are raising debt and equity. Unless the merger activity becomes manic, it may also help stock markets along.
同时在过去的几周中，牛市的信徒们在全球证券市场上只是受了点轻伤，并没有受到重创。汇丰银行发现在原材料价格高涨的情况下，公司利润并没有减少的迹象，包含这些公司的标准普尔500指数仍上涨了14％。强劲的利润意味着股票并未被高估，尽管年初以来标准普尔500指数一路走高，市盈率也只是刚超过1995年的水平，乐观者可以说股票正处于其价值水平上。尽管看多股市的人预计美国经济增长将在下半年衰退，但是他们希望欧洲和日本会弥补美国的留下的空当。同时提升负债和资产净值的公司并购也已经复苏，除非并购陷入非理性，否则这将会推动股市长期向好。

But even those who have profited from the long bull market acknowledge that there are risks. The research director of one of the world's largest hedge funds talks of a “happy-chappy” environment in which mainstream investment funds and hedge funds have pursued the same strategies recently, jumping from bonds to equities and then to currencies and on to emerging markets. For too long, they have ignored inflation despite high commodity prices, he says.
然而即使是受益于长期牛市的人也承认目前存在风险。世界最大的一个对冲基金的研究主管称，最近是一个“乐不思蜀”的氛围，主流基金和对冲基金都采取同样的策略：从债券市场跳到股票市场，然后转向外汇市场，再转向新兴市场。尽管商品价格高企，但他们仍然是太长时间的忽视了通胀的风险。

There are other risks beyond the immediate concern with inflation. If policymakers do respond to rising inflationary expectations by raising interest rates further than they would otherwise have done, the deeply indebted consumers of many English-speaking economies will be hurt. So
will the still-giddy housing markets of several countries.
除了通胀还有其他的风险，如果政策制订者通过提高利率而不是已采取的其他手段来对付通胀预期的话，许多英语国家经济中负债过度的消费者将会受害，一些国家高涨的房地产市场也是如此。

The skill with which policymakers handle a declining dollar is another cause for concern. The currency has fallen sharply since April 21st, when the G7's finance ministers appeared to endorse a weakening of the dollar by calling on China to let its currency rise. The sense that there may be a concerted effort to weaken the American currency has been nicknamed “Plaza-lite”, after the “Plaza Accord” in 1985 which did just that—with disastrous consequences for stock market investors two years later.
政策制订者应对美元贬值的技巧也是另一个需要关注的因素。美元从4月21日起就开始急剧下跌，当时的7国财长会议呼吁中国让人民币升值，从而似乎是肯定了弱势美元。这给人的感觉是协议使美元贬值的“广场秘笈”再次出现，它是得名于1985年同样做法的“广场协议”，在此2年后给股市投资者造成了灾难性的后果。

Mr Bernanke told Congress last month that because of the size of America's current-account deficit, there was “a small risk of a sudden shift in sentiment that could lead to disruptive changes in the value of the dollar and other asset prices.” He knows that markets are now playing with fire. More bad news on inflation, or any false moves on his part, will heat up inflationary expectations and cause more trouble for the prices of shares, bonds and other assets. What the markets do not yet know—partly because he has not had time to prove himself—is how good Mr Bernanke is with a fire extinguisher.
伯南克先生上个月告诉国会说，由于美国巨额的经常账户赤字，市场仍然存在“人气突变的微弱风险，而这将会导致美元价值和其他资产价格的剧烈波动”。他知道市场正在玩火，而更多的坏消息将来自通胀，或者他的部门的任何错误举动，这些举动将会给通胀预期火上浇油，并给股票、债券和其他资产的价格带来更多的麻烦。而市场现在还不知道的是――部分是因为他还没有时间来证明自己――伯南克作为一个救火员是否称职。