Euro-area interest rates 欧元区利率
Waving a red flag 红旗飘飘
Jun 8th 2006
From The Economist print edition
The ECB tightens the euro area's monetary policy by another notch
欧洲央行通过另一个途径收紧欧元区货币政策。
西班牙是斗牛运动的故乡，但是在
One reason why the ECB may have rejected a bigger rise is the strengthening of the euro (another is the recent fall in share prices). Early this week the euro rose to a 13-month high of almost .30, up by 11% since late last year. It is now close to its rate in November 2004, when Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, described the rise in the currency as “brutal”.
欧洲央行拒绝更大幅度加息的一个理由是欧元的稳固（另一个是最近股价的下跌）。本周欧元升至13周以来的最高点，即1欧元兑1.30美元，比去年大约上涨了11％。现在欧元接近了其2004年11月时的水平，当时欧洲央行行长特里谢称欧元的上涨是“野性的”。
The euro later fell back slightly after comments about inflation from Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, encouraged markets to expect another rise in American interest rates this month. Even so, the ECB so far seems less concerned about the euro's strength against the dollar than it did in 2004. Exports to Asia have been growing strongly, and the accounts for only 7% of the euro area's total exports, or 15% of its external trade. In trade-weighted terms the currency has gained a more modest 3% this year (see chart), equivalent (in terms of its economic impact) to a rise in interest rates of slightly more than a quarter-point. This is a good reason for not lifting rates by half a point, but not enough to prevent any tightening at all.
在美联储主席伯南克发表兑通胀的评论后，市场预期美国本月将再次升息，这导致欧元稍许下跌。尽管如此，欧洲央行仍不像2004年时那样担心欧元对美元的稳固性。对亚洲出口增长仍然强劲，同时美国只占欧元区出口总额的7％，外贸总额的15％。以贸易加权计算，欧元汇率今年小幅上涨约3％，（从对经济影响来看）相当于利率上涨略超过25个基点。这是不升息50个基点的好理由，但是这并不足以阻止其紧缩效果。
Another reason for being more relaxed about the exchange rate is that the euro-area economy is looking perkier than for many years. The zone's GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter. That may seem unimpressive compared with 's 5.3%, but the important news was the changing composition of growth: consumer spending, which rose at an annual rate of 2.8%, looked healthier than for a good while. Overall growth was held down by sluggish construction, the result of bad weather, but this promises to rebound in the second quarter.
轻松面对汇率的另一个理由是欧元区经济看起来比前几年要自信的多，本区今年第一季度GDP年增长率约2.4％，比起来美国5.3％的增长率虽然不令人印象深刻，但是其中重要的信息是增长结构的变化：消费支出年增长达到了2.8％，看起来要比以前健康许多。总体增长被恶劣天气导致的建筑业缓慢增长所拖累，但相信这将在第二季度得到改观。
Economists at JPMorgan now think that GDP could grow at a rate of 3% this quarter, and an average of 2.8% in the second half of the year. A recent wave of cheery economic news supports this forecast; indeed, the economy could even surpass it. Business and consumer confidence
surveys are roaring ahead.
JP摩根经济学家认为本季度GDP增长将达到3％，上半年平均为2.8％。最近一波经济上的乐观消息支持了这一预测，实际上经济可以有更好的表现，商业和消费者信心统计数据也是迅猛增长。
The durability of the recovery will largely depend on whether firms start hiring again. Here the news is promising. Unemployment has fallen by more than expected in both and in recent months. 's jobless rate has fallen from 11.9% to 11% during the past year, and 's from 10.1% to 9.3%. These rates are still shamefully high, but it is the change in unemployment rather than its level that matters most for shifts in consumer spending. More good news could be in store. Going by the hiring intentions reported in the euro area's purchasing managers' index, JPMorgan's David Mackie reckons that employment is growing at an annualised rate of almost 2%, more than twice as fast as last year, and the fastest since 2001.
复苏的持久性将很大的依赖于公司是否开始增加雇员，现在的消息是有振奋人心的。最近法国和德国的失业率下降超过预期，去年德国失业率从11.9％降至11％，而法国从10.1％降至9.3％。这些数据仍然高的不光彩，但是正是失业率的变化而不是绝对水平更加关系到消费支出的变动。更多的好消息是来自存货，根据欧元区采购经理指数反映的雇佣目的，JP摩根的戴维.麦基估计就业年增长约2％，比去年快了两倍，也是自2001年以来增长最快的。
New jobs, rising consumer confidence (which is at a five-year high) and, in some countries, surging house prices (see article) should encourage households to open their wallets. Indeed, euro-zone retail sales rose by a faster than-expected 2.8% in the year to April. Even German consumer spending is picking up, helped by the World Cup.
新增工作提高了消费者信心（目前是5年的最高水平），同时一些国家房价的上涨也鼓励家庭消费。实际上自年初至4月份，欧元区零售额增长达到超过预期的2.8％，甚至德国的消费支出也在世界杯的作用下开始增长。
Stronger growth allows the ECB to focus more intently on its inflation target: namely, holding inflation close to, but below, 2%. The average inflation rate in the euro area rose to 2.5% in May, which was higher than expected, and the European Commission's latest survey showed that inflation expectations are edging up.
强劲的增长使欧洲央行可以更加集中的关注于它的控制通胀目标：即保持通胀率接近但是不高于2％。5月份欧元区平均通胀率升至超过预期的2.5％，同时欧盟的最新统计调查表明，通胀预期也在上升。
The IMF warned the ECB this week against raising interest rates too fast. However, the central bank is right to worry that interest rates are unsustainably low and must now be lifted towards more normal levels. Most estimates suggest that the euro area's neutral rate of interest (the rate consistent with stable inflation and the economy growing at its full potential rate) is somewhere between 3.5% and 4%. This means that even after the latest rise, monetary policy is still expansionary. Evidence of this can be seen in the rapid expansion of private-sector credit, which is growing at its fastest pace for at least 14 years, according to Lombard Street Research.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）警告欧洲央行本周提高利率过于迅速，但是央行有理由担心利率长期过低，现在有必要将其提升至更加正常的水平上。大多数估计表明欧元区的中性利率水平（既稳定控制通胀又保持经济增长的潜在利率水平）约在3.5％和4％之间，这意味着即使在最新的升息之后，货币政策仍然是扩张性的。这一点可以通过私人部门信贷的快速增长看出来，根据朗伯德街研究的数据，这一增长是至少14年来最快的。
Further interest-rate rises are therefore almost certain in the months ahead. Futures markets expect ECB rates to reach 3.75% next year. If the euro climbs more sharply against the dollar, then the ECB'S job will get trickier. For the moment, however, the central bank may not mind a strong currency—as long as its rise is not too “brutal”. Not only will it dampen imported inflation, but it will also help to rebalance GDP growth towards domestic demand. A more confident economy can stand on its own two feet.
因此，在后几个月进一步的升息几乎是肯定的，期货市场预计欧洲央行明年将升息至3.75％。如果欧元兑美元汇率继续爬升，欧洲央行的任务将更加棘手。但是此刻央行也许并不在意强势欧元――只要它的增长不过于“野性”就行，它不只有助于减弱输入型通胀（注2），而且还能平衡GDP增长带来的国内需求上升。一个更加自信的经济将会稳稳的双足站立。
注1：基点为0.01个百分点，即万分之一。
注2：输入型通胀是指进口商品价格很高，导致国内价格水平上升，引发通胀。